300156 Sociology of prediction and the future (S) (WiSe 2025/2026)

The “open future” is a central trope of Western modernity. While “openness” evokes spatial metaphors, which are common throughout the semantics of the future, what also catches the eye is the use of the collective singular. Different conceptions futures proliferate in different times and cultures; the idea of a single, unified future space is relatively recent. Within such a frame of thought, it is possible that communications about the future, e.g. predictions, change this very future. In this seminar, we will explore how conceptions of the future depend on social context, and how ideas about the future influence present actions and decisions.

Drawing on interdisciplinary literature and case studies, the aim is to develop an understanding of the differences between anticipation, divination, prophecy, forecasts, utopias, and predictions. Key issues on which we will focus include the circular effects that communication about the future tends to spark, the potential to utilise the uncertainty of the future as a resource, and the specifics of the current “culture of algorithmic prediction”.

Each session will focus on a specific topic, for which several readings are proposed. Students can choose from these and are expected to write several short comments on them throughout the semester on which we will base our discussions in class.

Bibliography

We will discuss the complete syllabus during the first session, but the following texts will give you an idea of the seminar’s general spirit:

Adam, B. (2010): History of the future: Paradoxes and challenges. Rethinking History, 14(3), 361-378
Esposito, E. (2024): Can we use the open future? Preparedness and innovation in times of self-generated uncertainty. European Journal of Social Theory, 27(2), 209-224
Introduction and Chap. 1, (pp. 9-48) of Hölscher, L. (1999): Die Entdeckung der Zukunft. Fischer